Iraq Falters as ISIS Consolidates Gains
July 27, 2014
(left, Islamists prefer Toyotas) Our man in Basra predicts that the current division of Iraq into three parts is likely to become permanent.
by RA
(henrymakow.com)
The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) may very well be the final nail in the coffin of a unified Iraq.
An unfortunate combination of deep-seated sectarianism, a dysfunctional political system, corrupt politicians and incompetent bureaucracy has resulted in a political stalemate. Following elections in April, Iraqi lawmakers have been unable to agree on a new government, although they finally elected a new president.
Terror groups like ISIS ilk thrive off instability, weak governance, inexperienced armies, inequality and division. Iraq is a perfect example of all five.
The current crisis is largely due to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shia who has refused to include Sunni Muslims in his government. Yet he remains defiant and unwilling to leave his post or to facilitate power-sharing of any kind.
Emboldened by recent gains in Syria, ISIS is determined to establish a caliphate (Islamic state) that straddles large swathes of Syria and Iraq. It has won the hearts and minds of the alienated Sunni tribes.
As a result, large parts of Northern and Eastern Iraq are currently under ISIS control, including Iraq's second-largest city, Mosul. The group has also seized a number of towns, military bases, and oil facilities in the process.
The emergence of three different parts of Iraq is a reality. Iraqi Kurdistan has established itself as a thriving nation-state in the North, and the Southern Shiite parts of the country are being dragged closer into the Iranian sphere of influence.
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It is inconceivable that ISIS is planning to take the whole country. The group has no sway whatsoever outside the Sunni community. They would meet extreme hostility and resistance in Shi'a dominated areas.
Also, any further expansion will overstretch the group which requires an increasing need for lines of communication and supply. Such vulnerabilities may result in leadership fissures and exposure of internal weaknesses. Having learned its Syria lessons, ISIS main target is to cement control in Eastern and Northern Sunni dominated regions.
A military solution is not achievable. Sunni militants are highly unlikely to proceed further south and take Baghdad. Iraqi Security Forces, left to their own devices, are unable to push insurgents out of the grabbed territories.
The result is gridlock along the Sunni-Shi'a boundaries north of Baghdad. After more bloodshed, a negotiated settlement will become increasingly enticing to both factions.
Iraqis are set to celebrate Eid al-Fitr holiday next week. However, one notices a deep sense of apprehension among them.
I am currently in Basra, which is much safer than Baghdad.
"We are destined to suffer", one Iraqi friend told me recently while staring sullenly at a television screen broadcasting a speech by the Iraqi Prime Minister.
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Fighting continues
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